Senate Race Ratings: May 14th

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We have made two changes from last weeks projections, moving SD-34 from leans Democrat to Toss Up and SD-7 from leans Republican to likely Republican.

Based on today’s projections the Democrats would win 13 seats, the Republicans would win 25 and 2 races are a toss up.

Last week two developments led to the changes to our ratings:

Senate District 7

Brian Scarborough dropped out of the race this week despite being among the top Dem fundraisers in the state. We’ve previously discussed this district favoring a Clay County Republican over an Alachua County Democrat but this is a district with a Democratic base of about 40-45% of the vote. The problem is getting to 50% and Scarborough felt it could not be done. Scarborough told the Gainesville Sun that the district was drawn to favor a Clay County Republican and that is the reason he withdrew from the race. Thus we move this race from LEANS REPUBLICAN TO LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Senate District 34

A poll was released this past week that indicates Republican Ellyn Bogdanoff is ahead of Maria Sachs. We have questions about the methodology of and possible bias of this poll but the fact remains this race is competitive. Also this week, Sachs lost some GOP fundraising support as two of her most prominent local supporters claim to not know she was running against Senator Bogdanoff. Thus we move this race from LEANS DEMOCRATIC TO TOSS UP.

23 thoughts on “Senate Race Ratings: May 14th”

  1. Not having a candidate in a Gainesville based seat in unacceptable. What was Scarborough thinking?

  2. Pingback: Florida State Senate ratings: Dems slip in Districts 7 & 34 | Saint Petersblog

  3. IMO, state senate district 21, is unfortunately, a safe R district. Grimsley will be running there, and will likely have amassed a large war chest.

  4. As fa as Senate #34 goes there is still some resentment toward Maria for her support of Charlie and The votes she cast with Republicans. This will make it a tight race. If the costal folks vote in large numbers Ellen will win.

  5. Concerned Palm Beach Democrat

    Sachs has pissed off plenty of Dens in her day. This may be a good race for someone like Laxer or another good young dem. A chance to fire up the activists in a low turnout primary.

  6. All this talk of Laxer running against Abruzzo, a good democrat who is also young made ZERO sense and smacked of disloyalty. Laxer has plenty of baggage as I have previously hashed out here on this site.

    But against Sachs she would actually be a nice change, a decent alternative. No activist is going to back Sachs. Those who support may do so out of some warped sense of loyalty but she is not popular. Laxer would give an alternative to Bogdanoff cancelling out her strengths of being Jewish and hard working and committed to Israel. Problem is Laxer has no chance to raise enough cash to compete with Sachs.

  7. This was a set up for Sachs. They helped her in 2010 and screwed her in 2012. The establishment helped her in 2010 and now they are setting up to screw her. Laxer’s backage is that she left the garbage that gave us this garbage in PBC. They are helping Bogdanoff…like Skidmore didn’t warn her.

  8. I agree on Laxer v. Sachs .Sachs is a dud. I’m not hopeful about winning the seat with her as the nominee .

  9. Sachs is going to be irrelevant . She either wins because of the Obama wave or loses because she is nuts. The future of the party are the likes of Joe Abruzzo, Dave Aronberg and Adam Frankel. Kevin Rader should have stayed in the primary versus her. He has the leadership behind him in this other race though and should win easily.

  10. Sachs was pushed by the same people that Morning Star keeps talking about. Who in the world is Frankel? Kevin Rader no one likes. If Sachs jumps against Abruzzo she wins! I dont know Laxer. Dave Aronberg is nice but he is looking really bad now. I think we need to remake this party since MS seems to have destroyed it with this goofs.

    The state does not matter at this point because of all the loosers who
    screwed it up in 2010 Wexler, Sachs, Abruzzo, Rader and Aaronson.
    I think the only one that will be standing will be Sachs.

  11. Sachs might be irrelevant but so will Rader, Aaronson and Wexler. Now let’s see if Deutch will rise up to the occasion or continue to be a puppet for the group. What a disappointment he has turned into locally.

  12. Deutch is fantastic! He just doesn’t know how to get these bullies off his back. I dont know why he would endorse that little midget for an African American seat. I know the party statewide is now worried that this is going to hurt the GOTV. Dumb move. I think Deutch is the greatest but he needs to get some chutzpah. It looks like he is just a schmuck and I really don’t want to think that about him.

  13. That is horrible news in SD 7. The worst news is if we lose Alachua has no Senator. UF and local dems lose.

  14. Deutch will lead the way because otherwise we have no one. If we loose this election they are all to blame….not the voters! We will come out in droves again…the problem is what the elected officials will do to turn people off. OFA is already in trouble and the DEC forget about it.

  15. This was quite a shock but makes sense when you consider that the GOP by design drew Clay County and Gainesville into the same district deliberately to dilute the effective Dem vote in Alachua. The could ty will be left without a resident Senator for the first time that can recall, and the interests of UF as you mention and the rest of the county are now likely in the hands of a Clay County ie. Jacksonville area conservative. This proves Fair districts implementation by the Senate was a farce.

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  17. Ok Marty….look it how he does whatever Wexler and Burtie tell him to do. And Eric J. I am voting for Obama and changing my party to an I in November.

  18. Storms is running in the new 24, not 23.
    Benacquisto is running in the new 30, not 24
    Richter is running in the new 23.

  19. Sachs is running in 34
    Abruzzo is running for cover
    PBC politicians are running from the cops