Q Poll: Florida Race Tightening- Thoughts

The newest Q battleground state poll was released on Thursday and it found President Obama’s lead in the state shrinking to three points, 49-46. The poll also found Rick Scott’s approval rating at 41% which is about where Governor Chiles approval rating was at the same point in his first term, before Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida, and Chiles’ popularity . The voter purge also remains popular with Floridians according to the polling data, however it is likely that those surveyed do not know the full extent of the effort to suppress votes specifically the organized and orchestrated way this purge is being conducted.

One interesting question asked in the poll was the following:

31. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI

Support              60%    65%    65%
Oppose               34     31     30
DK/NA                 5      4      5

This indicates a strong sympathy for the economic views of the National Democratic Party (but not the post Chiles Administration Florida Democratic Party which has gone along with just about every tax cut proposed by the GOP  to benefit wealthy Floridians) to and an opportunity for Obama to hammer the message home that the Ryan budget, and the Romney economic agenda are not in the best interest of the vast majority of Floridians.

Nothing in the poll indicates a change in the trajectory of the race in Florida, which has long been a small Obama lead with Romney’s various attempts to gain significant traction in the state falling flat. The big question now if whether or not the Republican National Convention which is being held in Florida’s largest media market will change the shape of the race.

A couple of  additional takeaways from specific poll questions below:

The poll showed as expected the importance of Medicare to Florida voters:

                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI

Worth the cost       76%    75%    74%
Not worth the cost   15     16     17
DK/NA                 9     10      9

                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI

Continue/Provide ins 62%    64%    59%
Change/Money toward
 insurance           28     27     32
DK/NA                10      9      9

Despite the feelings of some Florida Democrats including our last Gubernatorial nominee that Obama’s Health Care plan was a political detriment in the state a majority of voters surveryed felt the President is more trustworthy on the issue of Health Care than Mitt Romeny.

23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on – health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.............................................
                                          HEALTH CARE EXTREMELY IMP TO VOTE Q14
                     FL     OH     WI     FL     OH     WI

Obama                51%    51%    50%    53%    53%    52%
Romney               43     43     44     41     43     45
DK/NA                 6      6      6      6      4      3

Additionally Health Care is rated as “Extremely Important” by most voters in the state.

14. Will – health care be extremely important, very important, only somewhat important or not at all important to your vote for President?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI

Extremely important  56%    52%    50%
Very important       33     35     36
Somewhat important    8     11     11
Not important         2      2      2
DK/NA                 -      -      1

Unfortunately the Health Care law isn’t as popular perhaps because of the constant demagoguery from the GOP and the unwillingness of many Florida Democrats to defend the law…

32. From what you’ve heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010? IF APPROVE, ASK: Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve? IF DISAPPROVE, ASK: Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI

Strongly approve     26%    25%    27%
Somewhat approve     16     19     17
Somewhat disapprove   8      8      9
Strongly disapprove  40     38     37
DK/NA                10     10      9

Finally Paul Ryan’s selection as Mitt Romney’;s running mate has appeared to make zero difference in the state.

11. Does Mitt Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Romney for President, less likely, or doesn’t it make a difference?

                     LIKELY VOTERS....
                     FL     OH     WI

More likely          20%    21%    31%
Less likely          19     20     22
No difference        58     56     45
DK/NA                 2      2      2