Predictive Modeling

Understanding the future is a powerful tool in politics. Very few can master it. Luckily, Voting Trend has a track record of being correct. While others, such as FiveThirtyEight, continue to poorly predict elections, Voting Trend models maintain a high level or accuracy. The reason for this is because our models are based on either actual voter registration numbers or voter turnout number, and not polling data. Therefore, our nowcast, which you see below, is based on voters who have actually turned out to vote early. If your state has a large number of early voters or votes by mail, then this model will help you.

We can also create static models based on vote composition. Using the District Precinct Analysis, we can use confidence intervals, as well as turnout projections, to get a better idea of how the electorate will eventually behave. We can also provide multiple models, and triangulate those results to provide different scenarios.

The model below is based on very basic county-level data. But with your campaign, we can focus on each voter, using multiple sources of data help pinpoint your district’s voting behavior.