Well, I have been doing previews of all of the major races. But that is now just getting tiring. Therefore, I am going to start putting up my predictions on the site daily until Election Day. Also, some of my predictions have changedfrom the time that I put my initial predictions up.
Most of the experts agree on a large majority of the seats. Therefore, I am not going to put which ones we agree on. Instead, I took two of the “big experts” (Nate Silver and Larry Sabato) and looked at which ones we differ on. And, of course, there isn’t much differing. Here are our differences in the House:
| Congressional Predictions | |||
| Seat | Trotter | Silver | Sabato |
| AL 2 | D | R | D |
| CA 11 | D | R | R |
| FL 22 | D | R | R |
| GA 2 | D | D | R |
| HI 1 | D | D | R |
| MS 4 | D | R | D |
| NH 2 | D | D | R |
| NC 8 | D | R | R |
| OH 18 | D | D | R |
| OR 5 | D | R | D |
My final predictions for the House is 227 for the Republicans and 208 for the Democrats.
Here are the differences in the Senate races:
| Seat | Trotter | Silver | Sabato |
| CO | D | R | R |
| IL | D | R | R |
| NV | D | R | R |
Therefore, I have the Democrats losing a net a three seats in the Senate, where they will fall to 54 vote. Therefore, they will be in a strong position to offset any craziness that come from the House.
Here are the Governor’s races we disagree on:
| Seat | Trotter | Silver | Sabato |
| FL | D | D | R |
| OR | D | D | R |
Nate Silver and I agree on all the Governor’s races, while Sabato disagrees on two of them. Overall, I have the Republicans getting a net of four seats with the independent candidate Lincoln Chafee picking up one seat in Rhode Island.
We will have pages up soon with all of the predictions up soon.
I am also adding the Florida 25th back into play, saying that Garcia will pick up that seat, after a recent Republican poll conducted by VSS.