House Race Ratings – September 26th

Democrat Andrew Saltman in HD-74 has dropped out and not been replaced, thus ensuring another term for Doug Holder. Saltman becomes the SIXTH Democrat to drop out of a contested partisan legislative race after the qualifying deadline.

Much of the news has been focused the last two days on Mike Horner and House District 42, a seat where Obama got 49% of the vote in 2008. Due to Horner’s resignation, Democrat Eileen Game becomes for now the favorite to win the seat. Game’s campaign has quickly taken advantage of the momentum created by the Horner scandal and the GOP will need to find a strong replacement to hold the seat. Names that have been rumored to be approached include former State Rep. (and current Osceola County Commissioner) Frank Attkisson and Former Rep. Randy Johnson who just lost the HD-55 primary to Cary Pigman by a handful of votes. Johnson previously represented the old 41st district that stretched from Celebration, through Windemere to Winter Garden. However, no substantial evidence exists that either Attkisson or Johnson or any other top tier Republican will jump into this race. Thus we move the seat from “Leans Republican,” to “Toss Up.” It is entirely possible this seat will be moved to “Leans Democrat” next week based on who the GOP recruits to replace the disgraced Horner.

Speaking of Johnson, we’ve moved HD-55 from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” as Democrat Crystal Drake has secured some impressive endorsements and local support. This rural district is ancestrally Democrat and does not perform as badly at the top of the ticket for the Ds as many may think. Pigman is still the favorite but his margin for error is slipping.

Full ratings after the jump

Leans Rep Likely Rep Safe Rep  Leans NPA
HD 24 (Open) HD 27 (Open) HD 1  (Ingram)  HD 34 (Smith)
HD 29 (Dorworth) HD 51 (Crisafulli) HD 2  (Broxson)
HD 35 (Schenk) HD 58 (Open) HD 3   (Ford)
HD 41 (Wood) HD 65 (Nehr) HD 4   (Gaetz)
HD 50 (Open) HD 77 (Open) HD 5  (Coley)
HD 53 (Tobia) HD 93 (Moritas) HD 6   (Patronis)
HD 55 (Open) HD 10  (Porter)
HD 59 (Open) HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 71 (Boyd) HD 12 (Ray)
HD 72 (Pilon) HD 15 (Davis)
HD 85 (Rooney) HD 16 (McBurney)
HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 18 (Open)
HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 22 (Open)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 25 (Open)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 31 (Nelson)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 36 (Open)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Weatherford)
HD 39 (Open)
HD 40 (McKeel)
HD 44 (Precourt)
HD 52  (Workman)
HD 54  (Mayfield)
HD 56  (Albritton)
HD 57 (Open)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 64 (Grant)
  HD 73 (Steube)HD 74 (Holder)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 76 (Open)
HD 78 (Open)
HD 79 (Open)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 82 (Open)
HD 83 (Harrell)
HD 103 (Open)
HD 105 (Trijillo)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 110 (Oliva)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Open)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)
Toss Up
HD 7  (Open)
HD 21 (Perry)
HD 30 (Plakon)HD 42 (Open)
HD 47 (Open)
HD 63 (Harrison)HD 66 (Ahern)
HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 68  (Open)
HD 69  (Open)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 112 (Open)HD 114 (Fresen)
HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Open)
Safe Dem Likely Dem Leans Dem
HD 8 (Williams) HD 43 (Open) HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)
HD 13 (Fullwood) HD 62 (Cruz) HD 49 (Open)
HD 14  (Jones) HD 86 (Pafford) HD 84 (Open)
HD 20 (Open) HD 90 (Berman)
HD 26 (Taylor) HD 104 (Open)
HD 45 (Open)
HD 46 (Open)
HD 48 (Open)
HD 61 (Reed)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 81 (Open)
HD 87 (Open)
HD 88 (Open)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Thurston)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Waldman)
HD 97 (Open)
HD 98 (Open)
HD 99 (Schwartz)
HD 100 (Gibbons)
HD 101 (Open)
HD 102 (Open)
HD 107 (Watson)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Open)
HD 117 (Open)

No Toss Ups -Leans R

HD 7  (Open)

HD 21 (Perry)

HD 47 (Open)

HD 66 (Ahern)

HD 67 (Hooper)

HD 89 (Hager)

HD 112 (Open)

HD 114 (Fresen)

HD 115 (Bileca)

No Toss Ups – Leans D

HD 30 (Plakon)

HD 42 (Open)

HD 63 (Harrison)

HD 68  (Open)

HD 69  (Open)

HD 120 (Open)

If we assign the toss-ups as we have above the new chamber would be 76-44 GOP, a gain of five seats for the Democrats but nowhere near the potential gains for the party given the competitiveness of the new map. Still, with six weeks left until the election, the Democrats could close in several of the other toss-up seats that we’ve assigned to the GOP being in a position to flip. If the Democrats ran the table in those seats and picked up another seat (let’s say HD-41 or HD-72) the Democrats would be within easy striking distance to perhaps gain control of the House as early as 2014. Realistically, 2016 is more reasonable target but those bemoaning that Fair Districts hasn’t worked, have not looked closely at these new districts and have not given the law an election cycle to work.

3 thoughts on “House Race Ratings – September 26th”

  1. Pingback: Is House District 55 now in play? | Saint Petersblog

  2. Lutrin should be a toss-up. The seat is Democratic. Both Obama and Sink won the district.That is not the case with the Hager seat.

  3. Pingback: Sunburn for 9/27 — A morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics | Saint Petersblog