House Race Ratings – July 17th

With the 2nd quarter fundraising reports now submitted, we publish our second State House ratings.

In the interest of full disclosure both Dave Trotter and myself are involved as consultants in the House District 42 race, and thus we will not be rating the race. The district was carried by John McCain by a few hundred votes in 2008 and is a great Democratic pickup opportunity. Donna Hart lost a similar district to Frank Attkisson by a few hundred votes the last time the Democrats made a concerted effort to win the area in 2000. Democrats also have a double-digit registration advantage in the district. However, to properly maintain our objectivity that race will not be included in our ratings. Additionally, there are several Democratic primaries I am involved with in the southeast part of the state and those races are being rated simply for general election potential. We will not make endorsements in those particular races on this website.

While each district either lists an incumbent or is open, that does not necessarily mean we are predicting the incumbent will win his/her respective party nomination for the fall election. We are just listing incumbents, but in some cases, incumbent Republicans are in very tough re-nomination fights.

Changes from the last set of ratings which can be found here are in bold and the color of the direction the seat moved (ie. Red if the seat is more Republican than last report, Blue if more Democratic).

Our next ratings will be in two weeks after the next filing period for candidates with August 14th primary elections.

Leans Rep Likely Rep Safe Rep
HD 24 (Open) HD 29 (Dorworth) HD 1  (Ingram)
HD 35 (Schenk) HD 51 (Crisafulli) HD 2  (Broxson)
HD 41 (Wood) HD 55 (Open) HD 3   (Ford)
HD 50 (Open) HD 58 (Open) HD 4   (Gaetz)
HD 53 (Tobia) HD 71 (Boyd) HD 5  (Coley)
HD 59 (Open) HD 74 (Holder) HD 6   (Patronis)
HD 65 (Nehr) HD 77 (Open) HD 10  (Porter)
HD 66 (Ahern)HD 72 (Pilon)HD 85 (Rooney) HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 93 (Moritas) HD 12 (Ray)
HD 112 (Open) HD 15 (Davis)
HD 114 (Fresen) HD 16 (McBurney)
HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 18 (Open)
HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 22 (Open)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 25 (Open)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 31 (Nelson)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 36 (Open)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Weatherford)
HD 39 (Open)
HD 40 (McKeel)
HD 44 (Precourt)
HD 52  (Workman)
HD 54  (Mayfield)
HD 56  (Albritton)
HD 57 (Open)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 64 (Grant)
HD 73 (Steube)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 76 (Grant)
HD 78 (Open)
HD 79 (Aubuchon)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 82 (Open)
HD 83 (Harrell)
HD 103 (Open)
HD 105 (Trijillo)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 110 (Oliva)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Rivas Logan)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)
Toss Up
HD 7 (Open)
HD 21 (Perry)
HD 27 (Open)
HD 30 (Plakon)
HD 34 (Smith) -Could go IND-
HD 47 (Open)HD 63 (Harrison)
HD 67 (Hooper)
HD 69 (Open)
HD 89  (Hager)
HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Open)
Safe Dem Likely Dem Leans Dem
HD 8 (Williams) HD 43 (Open) HD 9 (Rehwinkel-Vasilinda)
HD 13 (Fullwood) HD 62 (Cruz) HD 49 (Open)HD 68  (Open)
HD 14  (Jones) HD 81 (Perman) HD 84 (Open)
HD 20 (Open) HD 86 (Pafford)
HD 26 (Taylor) HD 90 (Berman)
HD 45 (Open) HD 104 (Open)
HD 46 (Open)
HD 48 (Open)
HD 61 (Reed)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 87 (Open)
HD 88 (Open)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Thurston)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Waldman)
HD 97 (Open)
HD 98 (Open)
HD 99 (Schwartz)
HD 100 (Gibbons)
HD 101 (Open)
HD 102 (Open)
HD 107 (Julien)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Open)
HD 117 (Open)

4 thoughts on “House Race Ratings – July 17th”

  1. What is interesting is how many “safe Dem” seats are open and how man “safe Rep” seats have returning members.

  2. I’m watching the campaigns in Miami-Dade and it is great to see the state party putting money and energy into 112, which leans Republican. Dems have a good candidate there (Rodriguez) who has amassed a bigger war chest than the Republicans. This is one to watch to see what happens when the FDP does it right.

  3. I think HD 85 should stay in the toss up column regardless of fundraising. Sink and Obama both won the district. Lutrin has a shot.

  4. Pilon’s seat should still be a toss up. Liz Alpert is very strong potentially and the seat will have a huge Democratic turnout.