As many of you know, Kartik Krishnaiyer did a detailed monitoring of the Florida House, Senate and Congressional races in 2012 and ranked them by level of importance as well as our predicted winners. Since the election cycle is never-ending, I have decided to do the first look at the 2014 races, now that we have the 2012 results in.
These initial numbers exclusively have to do with the voting trends in these districts. As the election season moves forward, the candidates will change from their current categories to categories that will suit their campaigns. Therefore, this is a pure “numbers only” look at what could happen in the Florida House.
As far as the “Safe” seats, the Democrats have 35 while the Republicans have 37. There is only one “likely Democratic” seat while the Republicans have 10. As far as the lean, the Republicans have 12 while the Democrats have four. If you have been doing the math while I explain the breakdown, you will realize that the Republicans are at 59 seats and the Democrats at 40 seats. Therefore, there are, mathematically, 21 “toss up” seats, with Republicans holding all but four. Therefore, while the Republicans are only one away from a majority, they could still lose it. It is unlikely, but they could mathematically.
In addition, there is more of a likelihood that some of the “lean Republican” seats could go to the “toss up” category than Democratic “lean” seats. Overall, the Democrats look to be in a better position to pick up seats because a larger percentage of their seats are safe. Currently, 80% of Democratic seats are “safe” (which, according to my calculation, means that the Democrats would get over 15% in almost every scenario). Only 49% of Republican seats are considered safe.
Here is the current breakdown:
Safe D (35)
HD 8 (Williams)
HD 13 (Fullwood)
HD 14 (Jones)
HD 20 (Watson)
HD 26 (Taylor)
HD 43 (Rangel)
HD 45 (Bracy)
HD 46 (Antone)
HD 48 (Torres)
HD 49 (Saunders)
HD 61 (Open)
HD 62 (Cruz)
HD 70 (Rouson)
HD 81 (Rader)
HD 86 (Pafford)
HD 87 (Kerner)
HD 88 (Powell)
HD 90 (Berman)
HD 91 (Slosberg)
HD 92 (Clarke-Reed)
HD 94 (Open)
HD 95 (Rogers)
HD 96 (Open)
HD 97 (Maskowitz)
HD 98 (Edwards)
HD 99 (Open)
HD 100 (Open)
HD 101 (Jones)
HD 102 (Pritchett)
HD 104 (Stark)
HD 107 (Watson)
HD 108 (Campbell)
HD 109 (Stafford)
HD 113 (Richardson)
HD 117 (McGhee)
Likely D (1)
HD 9 (Rehwinkel Vasilinda)
Lean D (5)
HD 30 (Castor Dentel)
HD 47 (Stewart)
HD 63 (Danish)
HD 112 (Rodriquez)
Toss up (20)
HD 21 (Perry)
HD 29 (Clelland)
HD 41 (Wood)
HD 42 (La Rosa)
HD 53 (Tobia)
HD 59 (Spano)
HD 65 (Zimmerman)
HD 66 (Ahern)
HD 67 (Open)
HD 68 (Dudley)
HD 69 (Peters)
HD 72 (Pilon)
HD 83 (Open)
HD 84 (Lee)
HD 85 (Rooney)
HD 89 (Hager)
HD 93 (Moraitis)
HD 103 (Diaz)
HD 114 (Fresen)
HD 115 (Bileca)
HD 120 (Raschein)
Lean R (12)
HD 24 (Hutson)
HD 25 (Hood)
HD 27 (Santiago)
HD 28 (Brodeur)
HD 35 (Open)
HD 36 (Fasano)
HD 40 (Open)
HD 44 (Open)
HD 50 (Goodson)
HD 58 (Raulerson)
HD 71 (Boyd)
HD 105 (Trujillo)
Likely R (10)
HD 37 (Corcoran)
HD 38 (Open)
HD 51 (Crisafulli)
HD 64 (Grant)
HD 74 (Open)
HD 75 (Roberson)
HD 79 (Caldwell)
HD 78 (Fitzenhagen)
HD 82 (Magar)
HD 110 (Oliva)
Safe R (37)
HD 1 (Ingram)
HD 2 (Ford)
HD 3 (Broxson)
HD 4 (Gaetz)
HD 5 (Open)
HD 6 (Open)
HD 7 (Beashears)
HD 10 (Porter)
HD 11 (Adkins)
HD 12 (Ray)
HD 15 (Davis)
HD 16 (McBurney Jr.)
HD 17 (Renuart)
HD 18 (Cummings)
HD 19 (Van Zant)
HD 22 (Stone)
HD 23 (Baxley)
HD 31 (Open)
HD 32 (Metz)
HD 33 (O’Toole)
HD 34 (Smith)
HD 39 (Combee)
HD 52 (Workman)
HD 54 (Mayfield)
HD 55 (Pigman)
HD 56 (Albritton)
HD 57 (Raburn)
HD 60 (Young)
HD 73 (Steube)
HD 76 ( Rodrigues)
HD 77 (Eagle)
HD 80 (Hudson)
HD 106 (Passidomo)
HD 111 (Open)
HD 116 (Diaz)
HD 118 (Artiles)
HD 119 (Nunez)
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