Final House Predictions for The Political Hurricane

Well, we are now only 26 hours away from when the first polls close in both Indiana and Kentucky. Of course, we won’t really know anything at that point, as the state needs to wait for the Central Time Zone to finish up voting. But the point here is that we are close.

Many of the experts are saying that this will be a Republican tidal wave. They are saying that, basically, no Democrat will survive. They feel that this one is in the bag for the Republicans and they will have a large lead in the House after tomorrow.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is predicting that the Republicans will capture 55 seats in the House. Nate Silver, on the other hand, can’t seem to make up his mine. Yesterday, he wrote a blog post explaining five reasons why the GOP might do better than expected. But in a post today, he is talking about how the GOP wave could be hard to predict. Again, playing it safe until the very end.

Still, Silver is predicting about a 55-or-so swing for the GOP. We really won’t know any final predictions until tomorrow, I assume.

But will the tidal wave be as big as these experts think it will be? I think not.

I was able to finally get my final number crunching (and get feelings) in on the final day, and I am happy to bring the good news and the bad news of The Political Hurricane’s final predictions.

First, the bad news…Republicans will take over the House. Yes, Tan Man is going to be the next Speaker of the House. Most Democrats expected the GOP to take over, so this in itself isn’t much of a surprise.

Now lets look at the good news. Well, at least the good news that we project. While Silver and Sabato are predicting huge Republican wins, we expect the GOP to only net 223 seats, a good ten or so less than these experts predict. Here are the final House races that we disagree on:

Seat Trotter Silver Sabato
AL 2 D R D
FL 22 D R R
FL 25 D R R
GA 2 D D R
HI 1 D D R
MI 7 D R R
MS 4 D R D
NH 2 D D R
NY 23 D R R
NC 8 D R R
OH 6 D R D
OH 18 D D R
OR 5 D R D
WV 1 D R R

All of the other races we agree on. I will be putting up a page with the overall race predictions. But I feel that the Democrats won’t suffer this ultimate destruction that most of the experts predict.

I will have the other predictions up shortly, as well as a “Watching Guide” for tomorrow’s elections.

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