Election 2010: Predictions for Georgia and Hawaii

Can Charles Djou retain his seat that he won by special election this year?

First lets look at the State of Georgia. Of course, Georgia always seems to have one or two close races every election cycle. This year is no exception.

In the Governor’s race, former Governor and Democrat Roy Barnes is taking on Congressman, Republican (who is a former Democrat) Nathan Deal. Most of the polls has Deal leading this race. And even though Barnes is showing a little bit of life, most experts don’t expect this race to be close.

Another wild card in this race is Libertarian John Monds, who is polling quite well for a third-party candidate in a southern state. The latest Survey USA poll has Monds at 8%. Still, we expect him to have less support on Election Day, as southern states usually stick along voting party lines.

The Political Hurricane predicts that Nathan Deal will become the next Governor of Georgia with 51.5% of the vote. Former Governor Barnes we project will get 43.9%, while Libertarian Monds will get 4.6%.

The Congressional races in Georgia will be interesting as well. In the Second Congressional District, FiveThirtyEight blog now has this race as a toss-up. Still, incumbent Congressman Sanford Bishop has been able to hold on to this seat, even in the worse of times. It should be no surprise if he retains his seat in the House. Only Republican leaning polls have Bishop losing.

We project that Bishop will retain his seat with 52% of the vote compared to 48% of the vote for Republican State Senator Mike Keown.

The other Congressional race to watch in Georgia is the 8th Congressional District. Jim Marshall barely won this seat in 2006, but was able to build up quite a lead in the 2008 election.

The polls in this district have been both partisan and all over the place. Again, it is really hard to gauge this race because of the lack of consistency in the polling. But by going on past election results and the makeup of the district, we expect Marshall to lose his seat. We expect his Republican opponent, State Representative Austin Scott, to get 52.5% of the vote, while Marshall gets 47.5%.

Now we turn our attention to Hawaii, where Republicans have been able to make a few gains in the last ten years. In addition to electing a Republican Governor in Linda Lingle back in 2002, they also elected Charles Djou to Congress in a special elections. Still, this might be one of the bright spots for Democrats on Election Day.

First, lets look at the governor’s race. Congressman Neil Abercrombie is expected to take back the governor’s mansion for the Democrats. Almost all polls have him in a double-digit lead over his Republican opponent, Lt. Governor Duke Aiona.

Still, even with the positive vibe in the governor’s race, many are wondering if this will convert into success at the polls for Democrats in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District. Republican Congressman Charles Djou, who won in a special election due to the split in the Democratic vote earlier this year, is actually performing quite strong against State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa.

Again, most of the polls conducted in this district have been by partisan polling firms. But a poll released today show Djou with a 2-point lead over Hanabusa. This is still within the polls 4.9% margin of error (which is quite large).

Also, according to the description of the poll, it looks like it was taken by “voters” instead of “likely voters”. Therefore, this might actually benefit Hanabusa.

The Political Hurricane is predicting that Hanabusa will win this election by a 51.5% to 48.5% margin. Also, if Hanabusa wins this seat, Hawaiians have a tradition of keeping their Members of Congress in there for a long time. Therefore, this could almost be considered a lifetime appointment of Hanabusa if she wins.