Election 2010: Predictions for Arkansas


This bumper sticker explains why Democrats won turn out on Nov. 2nd in Arkansas.

Like other southern states, Arkansas is another place where Democratic should expect a few loses. The Democrats are expected to lose half of the Congressional seats as well as the US Senate seat. The home of past President Bill Clinton has sure changed since 1992.


In the US Senate race, Democrat Blanche Lambert Lincoln looks to be headed for defeat against Republican Congressman John Boozman, who is currently Arkansas’ only representative in either houses of Congress. Lincoln alienated progressive voters throughout the last two years, which resulted in a strong primary challenge from Lt. Governor Bill Halter. Halter almost defeated Lincoln in the runoff primary election. But with Lincoln’s victory, progressive voters will more than likely stay home. Expect Boozman to win this election 56% to 44%.

The lack of progressive Democrats coming out to the polls will also have a harsh effect on the Congressional races as well.

In the 1st Congressional District, Democrat Chad Causey is looking to retain the seat held by conservative Democrat Marion Berry (no, not THAT Marion Barry). Still, with the departure of Berry, the Republicans expected to pick this seat up. And, according to our projections, we expect a strong Republican showing.

Some prediction sites have this race closer. Still, we are projecting 55% of the major party vote for Republican Rick Crawford, with only 45% for Causey.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republicans also look to take over. Democratic Congressman Vic Snyder, who has been a progressive throughout his Congressional career, is calling it quits. But even with Snyder being a liberal, the district looks to vote for a conservative.

All the major election projection sites have predicted that Republican Tim Griffin will easily defeat State Senator Joyce Elliott. And, like these other sites, we agree. FiveThirtyEight says that Griffin will get 56.9% of the vote. We project he will get 57% of the major party vote, while Elliott gets 43%.

Even with these possible GOP landslides for Republicans in Arkansas, not all is lost. Democrats are still expected to hold on to the 4th Congressional District, held by incumbent Mike Ross. And while Ross has some stiff opposition, expect him to win his district by a margin of 54% to 46% over Republican Beth Anne Rankin