Election 2010: Predictions for Arizona

Ben Quayle should win, but not a shoe-in by any stretch.

This election year, there are a number of states that Democrats are worried about. And one of those state is Arizona.

In 2008, Democrats were quite successful in Arizona, even with John McCain leading the ticket for the Republicans. But many of the gains that Democrats saw last year could easily be wiped away this year.

One of the seats that the Democrats are expected to lose is Arizona’s 1st Congressional District. This district encompasses most of north and east Arizona. And while current Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick won the seat by 16% in the last election, everything looks to be going against her this time around.

While this district might be closer than expected on Election Day, the chance of a Republican takeover is highly likely. Again, a number of partisan polls have come out for this district. But what is discouraging for Kirkpatrick is that her Republican opponent, dentist Paul Gosar, is leading her in the most recent Democratic poll by seven points. If a Democrat can’t even find favor in Democratic leaning polls, she is in trouble.

Still, even with the strong showing for Gosar, this could still be close. The only thing that could save Kirkpatrick is that there still seems to be a lot of undecided voters in the recent polls. If those voters stick with Kirkpatrick, she actually has a chance of winning. But as of right now, we project that Gosar will win the election with 51.8% to Kirkpatrick’s 48.2% of majority party’s votes.

In Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, the Democrats actually are looking to make of race of this seat. Ben Quayle, son of former funny man Dan Quayle, is running against Democratic attorney Jon Hulbard. While the Republicans are expected to keep this seat, Quayle has been, well, a Quayle as of late. Still, that didn’t hurt his father from become the Vice President of the Untied States, did it?

Most prediction sites have Quayle winning. FiveThirtyEight have Quayle at 54.6%. We have the race a little closer, with Quayle winning 53% to 47%, but a Quayle victory nonetheless. And, unlike the 1st CD, there seems to be less undecideds in this race. Still, only one partisan poll has been conducted in the district.

Arizona’s 5th Congressional District could also be a “black eye” for Democrats as incumbent Harry Mitchell takes on a former State Representative, Republican David Schweikert. Very few polls have had Mitchell in the lead, even Democratic polls. Still, even though these polls haven’t favored Mitchell, many prediction sites have this race as a pure toss-up.

But in the eyes of this site, it looks like it pretty much is a Republican pick up. We predict that Schweikert will win 52.1% to 48.0%, with the rest going to other candidates.

The Arizona 7th has been added to FiveThirtyEight as a “toss-up” now, but I don’t see it. Expect Raul Grijalva to win with at least 55% of the vote.

While most of the toss-up seats in Arizona look to be possible sore spots for the Democrats on Election Day, there might be one bright spot in this state. In Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, first-term Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords looks to hold off a strong challenge Iraq veteran Jesse Kelly. Again, while the polling in this district has been rare, the news continues to look good for Giffords.

Two Republican polls have shown that both Giffords and Kelly are in a dead tie. And with one of these polls being done by ccAdvertising, who is easily becoming one of the most laughable polling firms out there, this should give Giffords additional confidence. Our prediction, Giffords 51.5% to Kelly’s 46.5%, with the Libertarian Party netting 2% of the vote..