Election 2010: Prediction for US Senate in Florida

Is Marco Rubio the next Thomas Dewey?

While to Florida Governor’s race might be the closest, the US Senate race in Florida will be the one that everyone is watching. Rarely do 3rd party candidates do well in Florida. But when that 3rd party (or non party) candidate is the current Governor of Florida, things can get interesting.

Months ago, Governor Charlie Crist was looking like he was a shoe-in for the US Senate race. But with the emergence of the Tea Party Express as a national movement, right-wing candidate Marco Rubio has been leading in most of the polls by a healthy margin. But in the last few days, Crist has been able to make up the a little bit of the margin, but still lags behind.

Therefore, what can we expect in this race?

First, Kendrick Meek will lose. This is something that we have known since the beginning of the election. Even if this was a two-man race between Meek and either Rubio or Crist, he was not going to win. He was never a factor, and now he is just a thorn in the Charlie Crist’s side.

But how will so-called “Meek voters” actually vote on Election Day? This is the big unsolved question which makes what is considered a run away race for Rubio as a possible toss-up race on Election Day.

Like with the Governor’s race, Central Florida will play a key part. If Crist is able to do well in Hillsborough, Orange, Osceola and Volusia, then Crist will have a chance.

Even with possible success in Central Florida, both Broward and Palm Beach Counties might actually come into play as well. These are counties that usually vote for the Democratic candidate, and by a large margin as well. But with the dynamics of this race, we really don’t know who will win these counties. Again, Broward County voters are very liberal. And while some of them might like Meek, and will still vote for him, could they view Rubio as the greater evil, thus voting for Crist instead? Again, a very big unknown.

The magic number for Rubio right now is 43%. If Rubio is at 43%, and Meek polls at 18% (as he has in some of the most recent polls), Rubio will squeak out a win. But if the Meek’s margin is very low, and drops near 15%, and Rubio stays at 43%, this mean Charlie Crist is now at 42%. At this point, it is anyone’s race.

What is the most important factor in this race isn’t as much Rubio’s number (unless he has 50%, which makes him the outright winner), but Meek’snumber. If Meek has a very now number on Election Day, than a Crist victory isn’t out of the question.

But, as of right now, we don’t see any proof that Meek voters are supporting Crist instead. Again, it is nearly impossible to tell.

Therefore, for our prediction, we are going to say that Rubio will win this election. But don’t expect this race to be projected right away. Crist might be the underdog, but honestly, we could have a “Dewey defeats Truman” moment in this race.