Congressional Race Ratings – October 31

Several changes today to our Congressional ratings. Unlike legislative races where we rate races based on feel and on the ground intelligence, we are rating congressional races based on public polling which is available in most races. Thus we’re instituting a clear criteria beginning today. If a race is within four points either way in public polling averages, it’s rated a “toss-up”. Four to eight points rates it a “lean” and eight to twelve rates it “likely.” Above twelve points is considered “safe”.  Our polling averages are based on a combination of  numbers averaged by Talking Points Memo Poll Tracker iOS app, Real Clear Politics and other media sources. Furthermore, we’ll indicate which was a “toss-up” appears to be headed. These ratings will be updated daily until Monday.

Full ratings after the jump.

Safe Democratic
FL-5 (Brown)
FL- 14 (Castor )
FL- 20 (Hastings)
FL-21 (Deutch)
FL-23 (Wasserman-Schultz)
FL-24 (Wilson)

Likely Democratic

FL-9 (Open)

Leans Democratic

FL-22 (Open)

FL-26 (Rivera)

FL- Senate (Nelson)

Toss Up

FL-2 (Southerland) PURE TOSS UP


Leans Republican

FL-10 (Webster)

Likely Republican

FL- 6 (Open)

FL-13 (Young)

FL-16 (Buchanan)

Safe Republican

FL-1 (Miller)
FL-3 (Stearns*)
FL-4 (Crenshaw)
FL-7 (Mica)
FL- 8 (Posey)
FL-11 (Nugent)
FL-12 ( Bilirakis)
FL-15 (Ross)
FL-17 (Rooney)
FL-19 (Open)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart)
FL 27 (Ros-Lehtinen)
* Stearns lost the GOP primary to Ted Yoho