Two battleground areas highlight this year’s State House showdowns. One is the Tampa Bay area which we will feature today and the other is Central Florida which we will feature Monday. On Tuesday, we will look at the few remaining big House races outside these two battlegrounds. House District 58 Open Seat Gail Gottlieb (D) …
The Democrats entered the fall campaign having already more or less secured 34 seats (those we term as Safe or Likely Democratic) while the GOP had only secured 54 seats (Safe or Likely Republican) meaning they have to defend far more seats in competitive races than anytime in the last decade plus. However, we have …
With the advent of “Fair Districts” came Legislative maps less gerrymandered for partisan purposes than in previous cycles. In the House this has produced a map with fewer than 60 safe or likely Republican seats and if the Democrats could ever get their act together they could capture the chamber in the next few cycles. …
Senate Race Ratings: Republicans Likely To Overperform Read More »
CD 2 Al Lawson’s decisive win throughout the district (except Bay County where a local Alvin Peters won and Madison where local Leonard Bembry won) sets up the showdown we should have had in 2010 when the Democrats foolishly nominated the weak incumbent Alan Boyd by a narrow margin. Boyd was trounced in November by …
Random Post Primary Thoughts – Congressional Edition Read More »
Click on image for larger view Candidate qualifying for the 2012 Florida legislative elections has concluded and the Republican grip on the State Senate has gotten stronger than it appeared it would be following the Supreme Court’s 5-2 decision in favor of this redistricting plan. The Tampa Bay Times characterized the plan as having …
(click on image for larger view) We have made two changes from last weeks projections, moving SD-34 from leans Democrat to Toss Up and SD-7 from leans Republican to likely Republican. Based on today’s projections the Democrats would win 13 seats, the Republicans would win 25 and 2 races are a toss up. Last week …
Every time I have attended a political event over the past few weeks I’ve heard the same thing: “The President will be re-elected and we are going to pick up legislative seats.” There seems to be a cockiness that has permeated the Democratic ranks. We are more confident than we were in 2000, 2002, …
(click on image for larger view) Beginning today, we will update these ratings every week and will begin House ratings weekly after qualifying. We will also provide a digest each Monday of new happenings in the Senate races across the state. Based on today’s projections the Democrats would win 14 seats, the Republicans would win …
For years, the Republican Party, both in Florida and throughout the United States, have compared Democrats to Socialists, Communists and every other political faction associated with the former Iron Curtain. And during those years, Republicans have used it to rally their base. We on the left just look at them, shake our heads, and laugh …
Are the Florida Republicans similar to Soviet Communists? Read More »
My colleague Dave Trotter has done an excellent job of disecting this ruling and discussing ways to mobilize Democrats in the future. While there are close to a dozen new districts that can be disputed under the Fair Districts law, let’s focus on just two: Districts 6 and 8. Earlier this week I wrote about …
Court Defies All Logic With Redistricting Decision Read More »
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