2012 Elections Archives

Green vs. Coal: Is the UMWA becoming obsolete in Democratic Politics?

Leave a Comment / 2012 Elections / By Dave Trotter

From our new site “How The World Votes”: During the 2012 Presidential Election, the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) decided not to endorse either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama. Even though the UMWA didn’t officially take a position on the race, the rank-and-file mine workers were strongly against President Obama. Yard signs saying “Stop Obama’s War …

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Predicting the State of Florida

A few days ago, I explained why I picked the states that I did in the presidential election. Now, it is time for me to explain my Florida picks. Let’s first start with the US House (since the Senate was never really close): Congressional District 2: While I felt that the demographics were a little …

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Predicting the 2012 Presidential Election: My Method.

1 Comment / 2012 Elections / By Dave Trotter

“So, Dave, the election is now over. How did you predict the presidential race with such accuracy, even getting Florida correct before Nate Silver and other experts? On the other hand, how did you get some races so wrong, like Joe Saunders’ win in Florida House District 49?” Well, it is time for me to …

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Florida Election Day Weather Report: Mixed bag for both parties.

Leave a Comment / 2012 Elections, Florida / By Dave Trotter

Well, it is Election Day and time to see what it will be like outside. This is your resident storm chaser/political blogger Dave Trotter reporting. When the polls open in Florida at 7 AM, there will be moderate rainfall from Tallahassee to the I-75/I-10 interchange. This rain will leave the Tallahassee area quickly. This should …

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Dave Trotter’s predictions for national races for governor, as well as Florida House and Senate.

4 Comments / 2012 Elections, 2012 Florida House Elections, 2012 Florida Senate Elections, Florida / By Dave Trotter

Instead of writing an introduction, I will just go into my predictions. Here we go. Governor Races: DE: Democrats Retain IN: Republicans Retain MO: Democrats Retain MT: Democrats Retain NC: Republican Takeover ND: Republican Retain NH: Democrats Retain UT: Republicans Retain VT: Democrats Retain WA: Democrats Retain WV: Democrats Retain

Dave Trotter’s Predictions for Federal Races.

3 Comments / 2012 Elections / By Dave Trotter

When I started this website over two years ago, I mainly did it as an election prediction page. In all of the races for US House, Senate and Governor, Nate Silver beat me by one race. On the other hand, I beat Larry Sabato by one race. Unlike these two men who have vast resources, …

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Congressional Race Ratings – November 2: CD-2 Moved

Leave a Comment / 2012 Elections, 2012 Race Ratings, Al Lawson, Florida, Steve Southerland

It appears Al Lawson’s momentum in CD-2 has run into a brick wall thanks to Mitt Romney’s high performance in the area. Romney is poised to gain at least 55% of the vote in this sprawling north Florida district based on early voting from the area. Lawson does have some crossover support, and the race …

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Congressional Race Ratings – October 31

Leave a Comment / 2012 Elections, 2012 Race Ratings, Adam Hasner, Al Lawson, Bill Nelson, Florida, Florida Congressional District 18, Florida Congressional District 22, Legislative Ratings, Lois Frankel

Several changes today to our Congressional ratings. Unlike legislative races where we rate races based on feel and on the ground intelligence, we are rating congressional races based on public polling which is available in most races. Thus we’re instituting a clear criteria beginning today. If a race is within four points either way in …

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DCCC launches another ad against Southerland. Do they see blood in the water?

Leave a Comment / 2012 Elections, Al Lawson, Florida, Steve Southerland / By Dave Trotter

A few days ago, we mentioned how the attack ads against Steve Southerland started. Now, it seems as if the DCCC is on board and doing a last minute advertising blitz for Al Lawson. As with the previous commercial, this one stresses the cuts in Medicare as well as giving tax breaks for the rich. …

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Capsules of Tampa Bay Area House Races

3 Comments / 2012 Elections, 2012 Race Ratings, 2012 Redistricting, Florida, Florida Democratic Party, Florida Legislature, Florida Politics

Two battleground areas highlight this year’s State House showdowns. One is the Tampa Bay area which we will feature today and the other is Central Florida which we will feature Monday. On Tuesday, we will look at the few remaining big House races outside these two battlegrounds. House District 58 Open Seat Gail Gottlieb (D) …

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