Analyzing the Latest Statewide Numbers

Survey America’s polling numbers that were released yesterday are good news for Florida Democrats. Bill Nelson has according to the poll opened up a double-digit lead over Connie Mack IV and Barack Obama holds a steady but solid four point lead over Mitt Romney.

  • Among Independent voters, Nelson has opened up a 14 point advantage and Obama leads by four, a bad sign for the Romney campaign as that is a reversal of previous trends in the state.
  • Cuban voters according to the survey favor the President by numbers that continue an upward trend for Democrats among that demographic group which was evident in 2008 and 2010. Alex Sink’s statewide performance was universally worse than Barack Obama’s 2008 numbers everywhere south of Ocala  except in multiple Cuban-American dominated precincts of Miami-Dade County. The survey released yesterday appear to continue that trend.
  • Mitt Romney appears to be drawing a  significantly greater percentage of the black vote in Florida than he is in most national surveys. (13% in Florida versus 1-2% nationally) This could be a statistical error or an indication that conservative African-Americans in rural parts of north and central Florida aren’t as comfortable with Obama’s views on social issues as their urban counterparts. This large number could also accounting for the conservative bent of some Haitian-American voters in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. The large English speaking Caribbean ex-pat community in Broward County is heavily Democratic and probably is not responsible for this high number even though many more of them are eligible to vote in 2012 than in 2008.
  • Obama’s problems with white male voters continue a worrying trend for Democrats in Florida and throughout the south.
  • Mack is not running as well in SW Florida as he needs to win. He also can pick up some support in north Florida to pad his already strong support in that area of the state.
  • Mack’s favorable/unfavorable numbers (25%/37%) is awful for a candidate running statewide.
  • Jobs and Healthcare are far and away the most important issues for the Florida electorate.

The full Survey USA poll can be found here.

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