Analysis: Democratic Presidential Performance Swinging Wildly Across the State

President Obama’s campaign has shown Florida Democrats you do not need to win small rural counties or even medium sized counties to carry the state. For years Florida Democrats emphasized winning back north Florida as a key to a statewide revival. As we have pointed out repeatedly even if you carried every single vote in the second congressional district, Democrats would have lost statewide in 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2010  since the party’s standard bearers didn’t perform better in urban counties along I-4 and I-95.

In 2008 and 2012 the Obama Campaign emphasized urban and suburban areas and raised the turnout in Florida’s largest counties to unprecedented levels. At the same time, Democratic performance has continued to slip to record low levels (excepting the McGovern-Nixon race in 1972) throughout rural counties in the Big Bend, North Central Florida and Heartland regions).  As the chart below demonstrates the Democratic presidential vote percentage (figures below are 2 party votes only, third party candidates were eliminated for this survey) has declined since the 2004 Kerry-Bush race (Where Kerry lost the state by over 5 percentage points) in over half of Florida’s 67 counties. Yet, Barack Obama carried the state by almost a full percentage point in 2012, a six point swing from 2004.

Democrats have been in decline even in previously reliable  medium sized counties such as Alachua, Flagler and Volusia. The later two counties delivered  GOP Presidential victories last week for the first time since 1988, a year when George H.W. Bush carried 66 of Florida’s 67 counties (majority African-American Gadsden County was the lone exception).

At the same time the Democratic numbers in Hillsborough, Miami-Dade and Orange counties have skyrocketed, while traditionally Democratic Broward has pushed out more and more voters increasing Obama margins in a county with over a million registered voters.

While the new urban/suburban based Florida Democratic majority leaves little margin for error and relies heavily on turnout, it has effectively negated the long coming Republican gains in the exurbs, medium sized counties and Big Bend region. As the Republicans gained institutional advantages from controlling state government so thoroughly for so long, these areas were always going to shift towards the Republican column. The poor organization and lack of interest that the state Democratic Party showed in organizing medium sized counties gave the GOP even more of an advantage as it sought to realign the state permanently.

The GOP counted on eventually marrying  medium sized traditionally Democratic leaning counties like Volusia and Pasco (whose shift to GOP began after the 2000 election) to the traditional Republican “horseshoe” which counted on strong performances in the Orlando and Tampa Bay areas.

What has become obvious though is that if the Democrats run on a progressive message that appeals to base voters, urban/suburban areas will reciprocate. President Obama’s Hillsborough County performance was the best produced by any Democratic nominee since Harry Truman. In Orange County, his performance was the best since Franklin Roosevelt. Duval County is now becoming more competitive something that seemed impossible not long ago.

The shift of the Democratic Party to a urban/suburban oriented party and the Republicans to an exurban/rural party is a direct contrast to the voting patterns from the 1970s, when Democrats used a coalition of rural north Florida counties plus Dade to counter the GOP strength in Orlando, Broward/Palm Beach, Pinellas County the Treasure Coast and southwest Florida. With the exception of southwest Florida the GOP has lost most of its old base but essentially co-opted the old Democratic base. Such is the nature of a transient state with ever changing demographics.

Full county by county summary below. Keep in mind the Democratic percentages below reflect two party vote only.

County	Kerry  04	Obama 08	Obama 12	D % swing
Alachua	62	61	58	-4
Baker	22	21	20	-2
Bay	29	30	28	-1
Bradford	30	30	29	-1
Brevard	42	45	43	1
Broward	65	68	68	3
Calhoun	37	30	27	-10
Charlotte	43	47	43	0
Citrus	44	42	39	-5
Clay	23	29	27	4
Collier	34	39	35	1
Columbia	33	33	31	2
Desoto	42	44	43	1
Dixie	32	27	26	-6
Duval	42	49	48	6
Escambia	34	41	39	5
Flagler	52	52	46	-6
Franklin	41	36	34	-7
Gadsden	70	70	70	0
Gilchrist	32	26	24	-8
Glades	42	42	40	-2
Gulf	33	30	28	-5
Hamilton	45	43	41	-4
Hardee	29	35	34	5
Hendry	41	47	47	6
Hernando	47	49	45	-2
Highlands	37	41	38	1
Hillsborough	46	54	53	7
Holmes	22	17	15	-7
Indian River	39	43	39	0
Jackson	38	36	35	-3
Jefferson	56	52	51	-5
Lafayette	27	20	20	-7
Lake	39	43	41	2
Lee	39	45	42	3
Leon	62	62	61	-1
Levy	37	36	33	-4
Liberty	37	28	29	-8
Madison	49	49	48	-1
Manatee	43	47	43	0
Marion	41	45	42	1
Martin	42	44	38	-4
Miami-Dade	53	58	62	9
Monroe	51	52	50	-1
Nassau	25	28	25	0
Okaloosa	22	28	25	3
Okeechobee	43	40	40	-3
Orange	50	60	59	9
Osceola	48	60	62	14
Palm Beach	60	62	58	-2
Pasco	45	48	46	1
Pinellas	50	55	52	2
Polk	41	47	46	5
Putnam	41	41	37	-4
Santa Rosa	23	26	23	0
Sarasota	45	50	46	1
Seminole	41	49	46	5
St. Johns	32	34	31	-1
St. Lucie	52	57	54	2
Sumter	37	36	33	-4
Suwannee	31	28	27	-4
Taylor	35	30	30	-5
Union	28	25	25	-3
Volusia	52	53	49	-3
Wakulla	42	37	35	-7
Walton	25	26	24	-1
Washington	28	25	26	-2